Super Bowl Primer: Player Props
NFL | Super Bowl | 2021
Our focus in these weekly newsletters has been around DFS, specifically tournament-focused lineup construction & how we can use simulations to optimize our play. We don’t spend a ton of time focused on nuances of Showdown contests, it feels like it would be a disingenuous use of our final Substack of the 2021 NFL season.
The Super Bowl is a great opportunity to sweat player props - while the lines are typically efficient, it is a simple & fun sweat that is well-suited for the social nature of Super Bowl Sunday. We’re going to focus on player props available on Underdog Fantasy, as odds offered on traditional sportsbooks will be a moving target this weekend.
Underdog (and Similar Sites) Macro Thoughts
On Underdog (and similar sites like PrizePicks), users are offered multiple returns on parlayed bets. It is worthwhile to think about the odds that are implied by the different multiple structure. On Underdog & PrizePicks, users can 3x their bet by hitting a 2-leg parlay, 6x on 3-leg parlay, and so on an so forth. Let’s think about these propositions as truly efficient 50/50 bets. So you are offered a 3x multiple on hitting two 50/50s - 0.5^2 = 25%. So the expected value of such a bet is 25% chance of +2 units, 75% of -1 unit. 2 * 0.25 - 1 * 0.75 = -0.25. Let’s apply this math the other parlay/multiple options offered on these sites.
So while it might fun to load up the big 4-leg parlay in an attempt to turn $100 into $1,000, understand that in these formats there is more value in taking two 2-leg multipliers.
Next let’s talk about stacking your parlays. Of course in a single-game environment individual bets have correlations with one another that might be beneficial. For example, the Cam Akers rushing under might have positive correlation with the Darrell Henderson rushing over. But in general, under assumption of neutral correlation, we should think about how we might want to stack bets. For example, if you have 4 bets that you like, that you estimate at having 80%, 75%, 70%, and 65% of hitting, how would you optimally stack these parlays to maximize EV? Would you pair your most confident bet with your least confident bet to neutralize & give yourself decent chance of winning both parlays? Or would you pair your two mots confident bets to maximize your chance at winning at least one parlay?
You can see that when stacking your most confident bets, you actually increase your expected return compared to pairing your most & least confident bets as some sort of attempt at a “safe” approach of combining your most & least confident opinions.
Lastly, it is worth noting what probability we need to target in order to break even. To make a 3x bet break-even, we need a 33% chance in the parlay hitting. 50% squared gives us a 25% parlay, which won’t cut it. The square root of 33% is about 57.4% - so to feel like we’re getting a profitable bet down in the 2-leg (or 3-leg) multiplier parlays, we need to be targeting props that have 58%+ chance of hitting.
Super Bowl Props
Below is a link to our player prop tool which allows users to search players, statistical outcomes, and the probability of each player achieving such.
We’ll highlight a handful of props that we see a 65%+ probability on. For overs, these will be cumulative probabilities of 35% or less (meaning probability of the stat going over is > 65%, calculated by 1 - cumulative probability). For unders, these will be probabilities that are greater than 65%
Matthew Stafford - U 5.5 rush yards (66.2%)
Cooper Kupp - O 8.5 receptions (69%)
Joe Burrow - U 12.5 rushing yards (72.7%)
Samaje Perine - U 13.5 receiving yards (68.6%)
Depending on how frisky you are feeling, there are a handful of other viable bets that we’re projecting around 60% probability, but at this point you’re betting pretty thin margins.
We hope everyone has had a profitable and enjoyable 2021 NFL season. Best of luck this weekend, and remember to have fun & eat up.